Ken Larsen's web site - Stock Market


I've been dabbling in the stock market since 1975.  I make my own decisions.  Some have been great; some have been poor. 


My main philosophy is contrarian.  I like to buy when others sell and vice versa.  Currently the market has been in bull mode for over 10 years.  It's long overdue for a massive correction.  A few issues portend doom: 


  1. Generation X has massive college debt which impedes their purchasing power.

  2. September 14, 2019:  Iran attacks Saudi Oil refineries causing a 6% loss in world oil production

  3. September 16, 2019:  United Auto Workers Union are now on strike ... the first time in 10 years.

  4. Trade war with China.

  5. Donald Trump has demonstrated that he is completely unqualified for the office of U.S. President.  His childish egotisitical erratic behavior has divided the U.S. and alienated allies.  His machinations have artificially boosted company profits.  Like a house of cards, it's just a matter of time before reality sets in and the stock market crashes. 


Stock market sectors


Sector ETF to buy
Telecommunication services VOX
Consumer discretionary XLY
Consumer staples XLP
Energy IXC
Financial services KBE
Health care XLV
Industrials XLI
Information technology VGT
Materials IYM
Real estate VNQ
Utilities VPU





ishares/ETF strategy

June 2008:  After watching the vertiginous rides of some of my stocks (e.g. Garmin and Crocs) I'm inclined to favor buying ishares/ETFs instead of individual stocks.  Under this scheme I recommend that the average investor buy ishares when the S&P 500 index is, say, 15% below its high and sell them when the S&P 500 is near or above its high.  You could additionally sell options against those ishares.  There are a large variety of ishares ... some tied to the S&P 500 or other indexes; some are tied to gold or real estate.  They're safer than individual stocks.


iShares which appeal to me:



Name of Fund


Small Cap

Russell 2000 Value Index Fund


Mid Cap

S&P Midcap 400 Value Index Fund


Large Cap

S&P 500 Value Index Fund



S&P Global Energy Sector Index Fund


Real Estate

Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index Fund


Real Estate Vanguard real estate ETF VNQ


Dow Jones Select Dividend Index Fund


Dividends S&P 500 Dividend SDY
Telecomm Dow Jones U.S. Telecom IYZ
Gold iShares COMEX Gold Trust IAU
Silver iShares COMEX Silver Trust SLV
Lithium Global lithium and battery ETF LIT
Japan MSCI Japan Index Fund EWJ
China Large cap ETF FXI
  Banks KBE
  U.S. Technology IYW
  U.S. Home Construction ITB
Oil U.S. Oil Equipment & Services IEZ
  U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration + Production IEO
  U.S. Financials IYF
  Biotech IBB
  U.S. Basic Materials IYM
Solar Solar ETF TAN
Wind Wind Farm ETF FAN
Bond U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF AGG
Bond Vanguard Total Bond Market BND
Bond Investment grade corporate bonds LQD
Bond   MBB
Bond U.S. preferred stock ETF PFF
Bond   SCHZ
Bond TIPS bond ETF TIP


(August 14, 2018) I recommend looking at the long term (Max) chart of an ETF to see how it behaved at the bottom of the recession in February of 2009 ... and to see where it stands today.  I believe that gold and bonds are better hedges for a recession ... which I believe will soon be upon us.  We've been in a bull market for almost 10 years.  A recession is way overdue!


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