Ken Larsen's web site - Stock Market
I've been dabbling in the stock market since 1975. I make my own decisions. Some have been great; some have been poor.
My main philosophy is contrarian. I like to buy when others sell and vice versa. Currently the market has been in bull mode for over 10 years. It's long overdue for a massive correction. A few issues portend doom:
Generation X has massive college debt which impedes their purchasing power.
September 14, 2019: Iran attacks Saudi Oil refineries causing a 6% loss in world oil production
September 16, 2019: United Auto Workers Union are now on strike ... the first time in 10 years.
Trade war with China.
Donald Trump has demonstrated that he is completely unqualified for the office of U.S. President. His childish egotisitical erratic behavior has divided the U.S. and alienated allies. His machinations have artificially boosted company profits. Like a house of cards, it's just a matter of time before reality sets in and the stock market crashes.
Stock market sectors
| Sector | ETF to buy |
| Telecommunication services | VOX |
| Consumer discretionary | XLY |
| Consumer staples | XLP |
| Energy |
IXC |
| Financial services |
KBE |
| Health care | XLV |
| Industrials | XLI |
| Information technology | VGT |
| Materials |
IYM |
| Real estate | VNQ |
| Utilities | VPU |
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S%26P_500_companies
ishares/ETF strategy
June 2008: After watching the vertiginous rides of some of my stocks (e.g. Garmin and Crocs) I'm inclined to favor buying ishares/ETFs instead of individual stocks. Under this scheme I recommend that the average investor buy ishares when the S&P 500 index is, say, 15% below its high and sell them when the S&P 500 is near or above its high. You could additionally sell options against those ishares. There are a large variety of ishares ... some tied to the S&P 500 or other indexes; some are tied to gold or real estate. They're safer than individual stocks.
iShares which appeal to me:
|
Type |
Name of Fund |
Symbol |
|
Small Cap |
Russell 2000 Value Index Fund |
|
|
Mid Cap |
S&P Midcap 400 Value Index Fund |
|
|
Large Cap |
S&P 500 Value Index Fund |
|
|
Energy |
S&P Global Energy Sector Index Fund |
|
|
Real Estate |
Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index Fund |
|
| Real Estate | Vanguard real estate ETF | VNQ |
|
Specialty |
Dow Jones Select Dividend Index Fund |
|
| Dividends | S&P 500 Dividend | SDY |
| Telecomm | Dow Jones U.S. Telecom | IYZ |
| Gold | iShares COMEX Gold Trust | IAU |
| Silver | iShares COMEX Silver Trust | SLV |
| Lithium | Global lithium and battery ETF | LIT |
| Japan | MSCI Japan Index Fund | EWJ |
| China | Large cap ETF | FXI |
| Banks | KBE | |
| U.S. Technology | IYW | |
| U.S. Home Construction | ITB | |
| Oil | U.S. Oil Equipment & Services | IEZ |
| U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration + Production | IEO | |
| U.S. Financials | IYF | |
| Biotech | IBB | |
| U.S. Basic Materials | IYM | |
| Solar | Solar ETF | TAN |
| Wind | Wind Farm ETF | FAN |
| Bond | U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | AGG |
| Bond | Vanguard Total Bond Market | BND |
| Bond | Investment grade corporate bonds | LQD |
| Bond | MBB | |
| Bond | U.S. preferred stock ETF | PFF |
| Bond | SCHZ | |
| Bond | TIPS bond ETF | TIP |
(August 14, 2018) I recommend looking at the long term (Max) chart of an ETF to see how it behaved at the bottom of the recession in February of 2009 ... and to see where it stands today. I believe that gold and bonds are better hedges for a recession ... which I believe will soon be upon us. We've been in a bull market for almost 10 years. A recession is way overdue!