Ken Larsen's web site - Probability of DOLRT success

      

I graduated from MIT.  At MIT everything is math.  If they had a religion class, there would be a math component to it.

In the spirit of MIT, letís calculate the probability of success for DOLRT.  Here are the components:

#

Goal

Probability

Reason

g1

Obtain 50% share from Feds

Low

Donald Trump

g2

Obtain 10% share from NC

Some risk

Republicans in power

g3

No cost overruns

Low

Neal Bench speech at March 7th BOCC.

g4

Improve bus service across Orange County

Low

DOLRT will drain all the transit $ plus more

g5

Reduce traffic by a significant amount

Low

At-grade crossings + scattered population

g6

Reserve route for transit dependent people

Low

Gentrification along the route

g7

Improve the environment

Low

At-grade crossings

 

p(success) = p(g1) x p(g2) x p(g3) x p(g4) x p(g5) x p(g6) x p(g7) = vanishingly small

 

Recommendation:  BOCC Commissioners should visit Las Vegas and the play the slot machines.  They would get a better return for our transit $.

 

 

Ken Larsen's home page