Ken Larsen's web site - Probability of DOLRT success

Ken Larsen's web site - Probability of DOLRT success

The probability of success for DOLRT is vanishingly small. Here's the math:

#	Original Goal	Probability	Reason
g1	Obtain 25% share from NC	Low	In 2016 This was reduced to a maximum of 10%. To cope with that reduction, GoTriangle decided to borrow money until the year 2062.
g2	Obtain 50% share from Feds	Low	Because of Donald Trump, this likely will become a maximum of 20%.
g3	No cost overruns	Low	Neal Bench speech at March 7th BOCC.
g4	Improve bus service across Orange County	Low	DOLRT will drain all the transit $ plus more
g5	Reduce traffic by a significant amount	Low	At-grade crossings will snarl traffic. [details] Most notable is Farrington Road in southwest Durham. A scattered population will make the route useless to most people. It won't reduce traffic on I-40, and it won't make a dent in traffic on 15-501. UNC has been one of the staunch lobbyists for DOLRT, but their workers are scattered all over, and they are building satellite sites all over.
g6	Reserve route for transit dependent people	Low	Gentrification along the route will prevent it from serving the people who most need public transportation. Look at what's being done to Chapel Hill's trailer park people. [details]
g7	Improve the environment	Low	At-grade crossings
g8	Be technological relevant	Low	Railroads are an 1800s technology.

p(success) = p(g1) x p(g2) x p(g3) x p(g4) x p(g5) x p(g6) x p(g7) x p(g8) = vanishingly small

I gave this presentation to the Orange County Commissioners on April 4, 2017. See it here.